2026 Oscar Predictions

Predicting the Oscars

Every year, a group of friends and I compete to see who can most successfully predict the results of the Academy Awards. And every year, I fail miserably. My brain knows that I should take personal bias out of the equation and focus solely on reading the precursor award tea leaves, and yet each year I forgo logic in favor of championing my favorite films, and the result is one loss after another.

But this is my year, I can feel it.

Ahead of this Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards, I have written below a rundown of which movies I believe should win, and which movie will win in each category in which I’ve seen a majority of the nominees.

Note that the following does not include the Best Documentary category, as I’ve only seen two of the films. Nor does this list include the short films. I haven’t seen any of those nominees, so to write any sort of prediction would be disingenuous.  

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

NOMINEES

  • ARCO, Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
  • ELIO, Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
  • KPOP DEMON HUNTERS, Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
  • LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN, Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
  • ZOOTOPIA 2, Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino

Who Should Win?

I’m not even going to try to deny the unique runaway success that is KPop Demon Hunters, which has taken an absurd premise, filled it with upsettingly catchy songs, and created a crowd-pleasing blockbuster.

Who Will Win?

In its uniqueness and its mass appeal, KPop Demon Hunters feels inevitable.

CASTING

NOMINEES

  • HAMNET, Nina Gold
  • MARTY SUPREME, Jennifer Venditti
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Cassandra Kulukundis
  • THE SECRET AGENT, Gabriel Domingues
  • SINNERS, Francine Maisler

Who Should Win?

It’s rare to be totally stumped in a category, but this is the first ever Oscar for Casting, so thus I have very little idea how Academy voters will judge these nominees. One Battle After Another is a stunning mix of A-List stars; Hamnet discovered some of the best child performances I’ve ever seen; and Marty Supreme has Kevin O’Leary, which I’m hoping serves as a demerit. If I had to pick, I’d choose to reward The Secret Agent, which has such a rich, deep cast of authentic feeling characters who truly elevate the period setting.

Who Will Win?

Given that they have several Acting Oscar nominations, but I don’t expect them to win any of the individual awards, I think the Academy is going to reward Sinners with Best Casting, following up their win at SAG for best ensemble.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

NOMINEES

  • FRANKENSTEIN, Dan Laustsen
  • MARTY SUPREME, Darius Khondji
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Michael Bauman
  • SINNERS, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
  • TRAIN DREAMS, Adolpho Veloso

Who Should Win?

I find the philosophy behind Best Cinematography to be interesting. On the one hand, if the voters believe Best Cinematography to just be the prettiest pictures, then I find Train Dreams to be the obvious favorite, with its beautiful natural photography and meditative style. But if the voters instead choose a more diverse range of shot compositions and camera movements, then One Battle After Another becomes the favorite, with its constantly engaging blocking and framing throughout culminating in one of the most absorbing chase sequences in film history. Due to that, I believe One Battle After Another should be the winner.

Who Will Win?

One Battle After Another will win Best Cinematography, after winning the equivalent award from BAFTA, as well as the American and British Society of Cinematographers.

COSTUME DESIGN

NOMINEES

  • AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH, Deborah L. Scott
  • FRANKENSTEIN, Kate Hawley
  • HAMNET, Malgosia Turzanska
  • MARTY SUPREME, Miyako Bellizzi
  • SINNERS, Ruth E. Carter

Who Should Win?

This is an interesting category, with a range of period pieces and genre films. As a personal preferences, the costumes in_Marty Supreme_ bring to life the 1950s time period with amazing detail and style, which I slightly prefer to some of the more sumptuous costuming from the other nominees.

Who Will Win?

Frankenstein feels like a surefire winner here, with Guillermo del Toro’s film gaining much of its critical recognition in all of its design.

FILM EDITING

NOMINEES

  • F1, Stephen Mirrione
  • MARTY SUPREME, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Andy Jurgensen
  • SENTIMENTAL VALUE, Olivier Bugge Coutté
  • SINNERS, Michael P. Shawver

Who Should Win?

So much of good editing comes down to how a movie feels. Have you ever seen a 90 minute movie that feels like it’s 4 hours long? How about a 3 hour movie that goes by in a breeze? That is the beauty of good editing, keeping an engaging pace, keeping the visual language consistent so the audience never feels the urge to look away. For that reason, One Battle After Another should win here, keeping a robust energy throughout its 2 hour 45 minute runtime.

Who Will Win?

I’m torn here between OBAA, which won the BAFTA, and F1, which won the Critics’ Choice. When it comes to Oscars, which have a tendency to reward movies that just do more obvious work in the technical categories, given that most voters don’t know how to evaluate such aspects of filmmaking, I’m predicting that F1, with its muscular, kinetic action sequences will win the Oscar for Best Editing.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

NOMINEES

  • BRAZIL, The Secret Agent
  • FRANCE, It Was Just an Accident
  • NORWAY, Sentimental Value
  • SPAIN, Sirāt
  • TUNISIA, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Who Should Win?

It Was Just An Accident was perhaps the best film I saw this past year, and becomes all the more poignant with the ongoing tragedies occurring in Iran.

Who Will Win?

Generally, if a nominee for International Feature also gets nominated for Best Picture, it will be the favorite for this category. Interestingly enough, that only cuts the category down to two contenders – The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. Ultimately, I think The Secret Agent is a little too idiosyncratic for broad Academy support, so I believe Sentimental Value will win Best International Feature Film.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

NOMINEES

  • FRANKENSTEIN, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
  • KOKUHO, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
  • SINNERS, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
  • THE SMASHING MACHINE, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
  • THE UGLY STEPSISTER, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Who Should Win?

Frankenstein has many issues, in my opinion, but the makeup and hairstyling to bring to life both its period setting as well its monstrous creation is commendable, and should be recognized for its artistry.

Who Will Win?

Chalk this up as another style win for Frankenstein, with its makeup and styling doing the absolute most compared to its competition.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

NOMINEES

  • BUGONIA, Jerskin Fendrix
  • FRANKENSTEIN, Alexandre Desplat
  • HAMNET, Max Richter
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Jonny Greenwood
  • SINNERS, Ludwig Goransson

Who Should Win?

Jerskin Fendrix’s score for Bugonia is perplexing and beautiful, haunting and ambitious, elevating both the sci-fi conspiracy paranoia and the small scale human tragedy that animates all of the main characters’ actions.

Who Will Win?

After sweeping all of the precursor awards, Ludwig Goransson will win yet another Oscar for Sinners, delivering a memorable score in a movie that is largely about music.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

NOMINEES

  • DEAR ME from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
  • GOLDEN from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park
  • I LIED TO YOU from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
  • SWEET DREAMS OF JOY from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
  • TRAIN DREAMS from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave

Who Should Win?

Golden is a pop ear-worm from one of the biggest surprise hits of the year. It’s not often that an original song becomes quite as ubiquitous as Golden, and that success deserves recognition.

Who Will Win?

When an original song breaks through with the level of mainstream popularity as Golden, it is the obvious shoo-in for the Oscar for Best Original Song.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

NOMINEES

  • FRANKENSTEIN, Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
  • HAMNET, Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
  • MARTY SUPREME, Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
  • SINNERS, Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Who Should Win?

Sinners does an amazing job recreating the city center for a Jim Crow southern town, as well as an immediately iconic central setting in the juke joint where so much of the action unfolds.

Who Will Win?

Chalk this up as another design win for Frankenstein, as it has dominated the precursor awards in this category.

SOUND

NOMINEES

  • F1, Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
  • FRANKENSTEIN, Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
  • SINNERS, Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
  • SIRĀT, Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Who Should Win?

F1 has a lot of flaws, and I’m still slightly confused as to its position in the Best Picture category, and yet its sound design is complex and undeniable.

Who Will Win?

If nothing else, F1 is a masterwork in its sound design and should win the Oscar for Best Sound, following its equivalent wins at the BAFTAs and the Critics’ Choice.

VISUAL EFFECTS

NOMINEES

  • AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
  • F1, Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
  • JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH, David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
  • THE LOST BUS, Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
  • SINNERS, Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

Who Should Win?

Pretty much anytime a James Cameron movie is released, particularly an Avatar film, it is the default winner for Visual Effects.

Who Will Win?

And nothing changes here, as Avatar: Fire and Ash will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Visual Effects, as the film with the most wide reaching visual effects work, and the most integral to its storytelling and world building.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

NOMINEES

  • BUGONIA, Screenplay by Will Tracy
  • FRANKENSTEIN, Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
  • HAMNET, Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
  • TRAIN DREAMS, Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Who Should Win?

One Battle After Another tells such a grand, ambitious story spanning as many genres as it does years. Paul Thomas Anderson’s script never drags, despite an almost three hour runtime, keeping the action engaging and the characters grounded throughout.

Who Will Win?

One Battle After Another will win Best Adapted Screenplay, having won the equivalent awards from the WGA, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

NOMINEES

  • BLUE MOON, Written by Robert Kaplow
  • IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT, Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
  • MARTY SUPREME, Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
  • SENTIMENTAL VALUE, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
  • SINNERS, Written by Ryan Coogler

Who Should Win?

Blue Moon feels like a stage play in the best possible way, so credit is due to Robert Kaplow for writing a story that is so contained, while also handling histories and themes that expand well beyond the scope of the story.

Who Will Win?

Sinners will win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, winning as it has every relevant precursor award – WGA, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

NOMINEES

  • TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, Marty Supreme
  • LEONARDO DICAPRIO, One Battle after Another
  • ETHAN HAWKE, Blue Moon
  • MICHAEL B. JORDAN, Sinners
  • WAGNER MOURA, The Secret Agent

Who Should Win?

This is overall a very strong category, with nobody standing out as an obvious weak winner (though I would have loved Jesse Plemons sneaking in a nomination over Michael B. Jordan). My two favorite performances from this group are Ethan Hawke and Wagner Moura, who give such wildly different performances that highlight the core absurdity of treating the art form as a competition. How do you compare Hawke’s scene-chewing, motormouthed playwright with Moura’s subtle, terrified man on the run? Ultimately, I don’t think either of these actors’ films have quite the zealous support needed to carry an upset.

Who Will Win?

For the longest time, this felt like Timothée Chalamet’s award to lose, but I think a very real Chalamet fatigue has settled in after back to back years of him aggressively campaigning to win an Oscar. Combine that with Michael B. Jordan’s surprise win at SAG, and you don’t have to think too hard to see an upset coming. That being said, SAG is not a perfect predictor of Oscar success, as Chalamet himself knows after winning the SAG award last year only to see Adrien Brody take the Oscar. So all this being said, I’m sticking with Timothée Chalamet as Best Actor in a Leading Role.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

NOMINEES

  • BENICIO DEL TORO, One Battle after Another
  • JACOB ELORDI, Frankenstein
  • DELROY LINDO, Sinners
  • SEAN PENN, One Battle after Another
  • STELLAN SKARSGÅRD, Sentimental Value

Who Should Win?

You can make the argument that Stellan Skarsgård’s nomination here is a case of category fraud, as his role in Sentimental Value is certainly closer to lead, and yet I can’t deny the power of his performance in what was one of my favorite movies of the year. A win for Skarsgård wouldn’t just be a career achievement award – though the fact this is his first Oscar nomination ever is wild to me – but it would also be a fitting award to one of the more nuanced, emotional performances from anybody across all categories this year.

Who Will Win?

So far as anybody has dominated the precursor awards, Sean Penn would be the favorite, having won the SAG and BAFTA awards while Jacob Elordi won the Critics’ Choice and Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe. This is perhaps my biggest upset pick, but I have a feeling Delroy Lindo is going to be the surprise winner for Best Supporting Actor. Is there any logic to this prediction? Not particularly, so take it with a massive grain of salt.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

NOMINEES

  • JESSIE BUCKLEY, Hamnet
  • ROSE BYRNE, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
  • KATE HUDSON, Song Sung Blue
  • RENATE REINSVE, Sentimental Value
  • EMMA STONE, Bugonia

Who Should Win?

While I’m a big fan of all of these performances, I don’t know that anybody played such a unique, challenging role as Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value. As Nora Borg, Reinsve is difficult to love, lashing out with all of her trauma at anybody who dares care about her, and the result is a heartbreaking character whose vulnerability is shocking when it comes.

Who Will Win?

This is one of the few categories this year with a clear frontrunner, as Jessie Buckley has won virtually every precursor award available – SAG, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe. While I won’t be completely shocked if somebody like Rose Byrne were to swoop in, Buckley is the clear and obvious favorite.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

NOMINEES

  • ELLE FANNING, Sentimental Value
  • INGA IBSDOTTER LILLEAAS, Sentimental Value
  • AMY MADIGAN, Weapons
  • WUNMI MOSAKU, Sinners
  • TEYANA TAYLOR, One Battle after Another

Who Should Win?

Horror might be my favorite genre, a genre that is often neglected by the Academy Awards, so I feel obligated to champion Amy Madigan from Weapons, as she delivers such a memorable horror antagonist. Madigan doesn’t appear for over an hour, and yet when she does she turns the film upside down.

Who Will Win?

Few categories had such evenly dispersed precursor awards as Supporting Actress, with Amy Madigan winning SAG and Critics’ Choice, Teyana Taylor winning the Golden Globe, and Wunmi Mosaku taking the BAFTA. While the movie itself is otherwise neglected, the Oscars have a tendency to reward genre films with best supporting wins, and I think this will continue as Amy Madigan will take Best Actress in a Supporting Role.

DIRECTING

NOMINEES

  • HAMNET, Chloé Zhao
  • MARTY SUPREME, Josh Safdie
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • SENTIMENTAL VALUE, Joachim Trier
  • SINNERS, Ryan Coogler

Who Should Win?

Paul Thomas Anderson has been a critical darling for almost thirty years and has yet to win an Oscar. With One Battle After Another, he has proven himself yet again as a top flight auteur capable of handling a variety of genres, with some of the most evocative action sequences imaginable.

Who Will Win?

I would be surprised if anybody other than Paul Thomas Anderson were to win Best Director, following up equivalent victories from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes.

BEST PICTURE

NOMINEES

  • BUGONIA, Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, Producers
  • F1, Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
  • FRANKENSTEIN, Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, Producers
  • HAMNET, Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, Producers
  • MARTY SUPREME, Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, Producers
  • ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
  • THE SECRET AGENT, Emilie Lesclaux, Producer
  • SENTIMENTAL VALUE, Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, Producers
  • SINNERS, Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, Producers
  • TRAIN DREAMS, Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, Producers

Who Should Win?

With its auteur vision, ambitious mixes of genre, and topical thematic material, PT Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the unique movie that is both timely in the current political climate, but entertaining enough to appeal to audiences for generations to come.

Who Will Win?

After winning virtually all of the precursors, I’m confident One Battle After Another will win Best Picture, though it’s far from a guarantee with Sinners looking like the most likely upset pick.